Expected DA DR from Jan 2016: July, 2015 CPI-IW released

Speculation of DA/DR from Jan, 2016 on the basis of AICPIN of July, 2015 is not possible.  The 2 points increase in July, 2015 AICPIN after 3 points increase is last months AICPIN is not a large  variation, but this 2 points increase showing the DA/DR index to 120% for the current month and further two or three month's AICPIN are important.  Three situations are given in undermentioned table is showing 123% to 128% future DA/DR from Jan-2016. Readers are requested not to take it final and study the following table.  On the other hand the approval of 6% increase in Dearness Allowance & Dearness Relief from July, 2015 is also pending at govt. side, may be announced in 2nd or 3rd week of Sep, 2015 click here to view the news.  Further, the estimation of two installment of DA/DR from Jul-2015 & Jan-2016 is important for expected pay and allowances in 7th CPC.

Following table is only showing the effect of Jul-2015 months' AICPIN increase:-

Expected DA/DR from Jan, 2016 - Table by www.staffnews.in

Expect- ation	Increase/ Decrease Index	Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or will be announced
	0	Dec,14	253	2963	246.92	113.30%	113%
Expected DA from July, 2015 is to be announced by Govt. DA/DR from July, 2015	1	Jan,15	254	2980	248.33	114.52%	119%
	-1	Feb,15	253	2995	249.58	115.60%
	1	Mar,15	254	3010	250.83	116.68%
	2	Apr,15	256	3024	252.00	117.69%
	2	May,15	258	3038	253.17	118.70%
	3	Jun,15	261	3053	254.42	119.78%
Jul+AICPIN	2	Jul,15	263	3064	255.33	120.57%	120%
Expectation of no increase in AICPIN in next 5 months	0	Aug,15	263	3074	256.17	121.29%	124%
	0	Sep,15	263	3084	257.00	122.01%
	0	Oct,15	263	3094	257.83	122.73%
	0	Nov,15	263	3104	258.67	123.45%
	0	Dec,15	263	3114	259.50	124.17%
	Expected DA/DR from January-2016
Expectation of total 5 points increase in AICPIN in next 5 months	1	Aug,15	264	3134	261.17	125.61%	128%
	1	Sep,15	265	3145	262.08	126.40%
	1	Oct,15	266	3155	262.92	127.12%
	1	Nov,15	267	3164	263.67	127.77%
	1	Dec,15	268	3171	264.25	128.27%
	Expected DA/DR from January-2016
Expectation of total 5 points decline in AICPIN in next 5 months	-1	Aug,15	262	3073	256.08	121.22%	123%
	-1	Sep,15	261	3081	256.75	121.80%
	-1	Oct,15	260	3088	257.33	122.30%
	-1	Nov,15	259	3094	257.83	122.73%
	-1	Dec,15	258	3099	258.25	123.09%
	Expected DA/DR from January-2016