Excepted DA

As speculated in last month with March, 2015 AICPIN the Expected DA will be 119% from July, 2015 with small variation in second half of current half yearly.  And as per Press Release by Labour Bureau the All India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Worker (CPI-IW) for April, 2015 increased by 2 points and pegged at 256. The 6% increase in future DA/DR from July, 2015 means DA/DR will be 119% from July, 2015 can expect after April, 2015 CPI-IW Index. The Expected DA/DR Calculator Table is given below:  It is clear that the expectation of 119% is static upto 7 point increase in last 2 months Index, but only 2 or 3 point decline in the May & June, 2015 index will give 5% hike in future DA. The following table is giving the probability 119% DA/DR from July-2015. Readers are requested not to take it final and study the following table. Further, the estimation of two installment of DA/DR from Jul-2015 is important for projected pay and allowances in 7th CPC.

Following table only showing the effect of April-2015 months' AICPI-IW Number:

Expect- ation	Increase/ Decrease Index	Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for DA	DA announced or will be announced
Order issued for 6% increase in Dearness Allowance 6% increase in Dearness Relief	2	Jun,14	246	2879	239.92	107.25%	107%
	6	Jul,14	252	2896	241.33	108.48%
	1	Aug,14	253	2912	242.67	109.63%
	0	Sep,14	253	2927	243.92	110.71%
	0	Oct,14	253	2939	244.92	111.57%
	0	Nov,14	253	2949	245.75	112.29%
	0	Dec,14	253	2963	246.92	113.30%	113%
Jan+AICPIN	1	Jan,15	254	2980	248.33	114.52%	118%
Feb+AICPIN	-1	Feb,15	253	2995	249.58	115.60%
Mar+AICPIN	1	Mar,15	254	3010	250.83	116.68%
Apr+AICPIN	2	Apr,15	256	3024	252.00	117.69%
Expectation for 118% with 2 point decline	-2	May,15	254	3034	252.83	118.41%
	0	Jun,15	254	3042	253.50	118.99%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015
Expectation for 119% with no change in AICPIN	0	May,15	256	3036	253.00	118.56%	119%
	0	Jun,15	256	3046	253.83	119.28%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015
Expectation for 119% with 6 point increase	3	May,15	259	3039	253.25	118.77%	119%
	3	Jun,15	262	3055	254.58	119.92%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015

You may also download/save the excel sheet for self calculation.  The link for excel sheet is given below:

DOWNLOAD: EXCEL FILE FOR EXPECTED DEARNESS CALCULATION TO CALCULATE YOURSELF [click on File-Menu & download]

Press Release of AICPIN for April 2015 – 2 Points increase and pegged at 256:-

No. 5/1/2015- CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-l71004

DATED : 29th May, 2015

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-1W) - April, 2015

The All-India CPI-1W for April, 2015 increased by 2 points and pegged at 256 (two hundred and fifty six). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.79 per cent between March, 2015 and April, 2015 when compared with the increase of (+) 1.26 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 1.24 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Arhar Dal, Gram Dal, Urd Dal, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Poultry (Chicken), Milk (Buffalo & Cow), Vegetable & Fruit items, Tea (Readymade), Snack (Sweet Saltish), Country Liquor, Electricity Charges, Doctor’s Fee, Private Tuition Fee, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted by Eggs (Hen), Onion, Chillies Green, Sugar, Petrol, Flower/F lower Garlands, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 5.79 per cent for April, 2015 as compared to 6.28 per cent for the previous month and 7.08 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 5.68 per cent against 6.98 per cent of the previous month and 7.76 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Srinagar reported the highest increase of 9 points followed by Bhilai (5 points). Among others, 4 points increase was observed in 14 centres, 3 points in 9 centres, 2 points in 14 centres and I point in 18 centres. On the contrary, Giridih centre recorded a maximum decrease of 6 points followed by Guntur (3 points) and Ranchi-Hatia and Godavarikhani (2 points each). Among others, 1 point decrease was observed in 8 centres. Rest of the 9 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 36 centres are above All India Index and other 42 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next index of CPHW for the month of May, 2015 will be released on Tuesday, 30th June, 2015. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau. gov. in.

sd/-

(S.S. NEGI)

DIRECTOR

Source: http://labourbureau.nic.in/Press%20Note%20English%20Apr%202015.pdf

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